人口结构失衡，中国的房价会怎样收场？（转发）
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="http://pic.app.meishanren.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010481" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010481"><div class="preview_article "> <!----> <p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国人口不是线性发展的，60岁为界限的话，2022年后进入60岁的会突然比前几年暴涨近千万。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">同样，2022年进入劳动力市场的是2000年前后出生的人口，也比1962年后出生的数量少近千万。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以退休潮会在2022年真正拉大大幕。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">一方面，老人突然每年比前几年多增加一千万；另一方面，可以缴纳养老金赡养老人的，每年新进入劳动力市场的人口也比往年少了近千万。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">一增一减，意味着每年会消亡一千多万的劳动力人口。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">预期平均寿命76岁（预期平均寿命不是实际平均寿命，实际平均寿命是低于76的），人口数量坍塌会在2035年左右开始。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">每年坍塌规模会大于1500万，十年减少近两亿人口，然后变缓大概维持在每十年减少一亿。很简单的数学题，高峰期每年出生2700万，意味着高峰期中国每年也会死去2700万人。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这些都是已经注定的，改变不了。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">因为女性是有生育年龄的，80、</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">90后女性已经渐次开始失去生育能力。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">未来接班的00、</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10后女性数量上直接比8090后女性少了四分之一，生育意愿恐怕也降低了不只四分之一。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今年新生人口应该不会超过 1300万，我乐观估计2030年代前后00后扛起生育大旗的时候，中国能每年出生900万人。2700万减900万等于1800万，这就是人口奔溃高峰期时候的状况。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">大部分老人都有躺病床上需要人照顾的时候，所以独生子女家庭的8090后们，做好在病床前伺候你岳父岳母的准备吧。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我身边就一同事双独结合，老丈人住了小半年院，把他折腾的够呛。这个时候他才明白什么是养老难题，连个替换的兄弟姐妹都没有。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">当然这是小处，真正的大处还是年轻人少了，交养老金的少了。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">谁给老人发钱养老呢？只有一个办法，学习日本压榨年轻人，让年轻人996来产出更多的财富就可以养活更多的老人。不论日本还是韩国包括台湾地区，这些老龄化走在世界前列的地方无一例外年轻人特别苦逼。没办法不压迫年轻人，那么多老人怎么办？</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以人口结构越失衡，年轻人就会越苦逼。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">那些幻想年轻人少了，年轻人生活就会好的简直是异想天开。即便你无父无母不结婚，国家也必定要你缴纳更多的税收来养活其他人的父母，这就是国家存在的意义之一，是集体不是个人。其实所谓的单身税或者说不要孩子税，在国外都是常态，只不过叫法不同。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这是我回答退休潮时的答案，直接复制过来了。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">同样退休潮也适用于房价。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上述数据可看出，中国人口最近几年就会负增长，但是幅度并不大。真正的人口奔溃要等到2030年代。十年间会减少近两亿人口。那时二三四五线城市房地产注定一地鸡毛。因为人死了房子空了，外来人口也没了，空出的房子给谁住。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">而且2030年代还会面临逆城市化。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今天在城市里打工的四五十岁的农民工，会在十几年后失去劳动能力，而所打工的城市是不会容纳他们养老的。他们只能踏上返乡养老的道路。具体多少人因为我没数据不好说，但起码大几千万人会有。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这在其他国家是没有先例的。一个人在城市工作了几十年，为这个城市奉献了一辈子的劳动力，最后还是无法落户，无法享受大城市的福利待遇，失去工作能力后从哪来回哪去。这同样会对房地产市场造成冲击。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">当然北京永远是北京，上海永远是上海。大家还是挤破头的，房价也有支撑。但是90%的三四五线城市未来注定一地鸡毛。不过还有几年的缓冲期，政策高明的话房价甚至可以撑到2030年代。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">有解吗？无解。因为木已成舟，未富先老已成定局。准备迎接人口结构的巨变吧。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">当然有人不信我说的，但数据在这放着，三五年后大家就会看到初步的结果。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">现在只需要静静的等待六七十年代出生的人离世把房子腾出来。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">三五年内的趋势呢？</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳市2020年全年推出商品住宅成交430.1万方平米。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">河南漯河市，2020年商品房销售415万平方米，其中住宅311万平方米。如果减去两个县城的销量，中心城区住宅销量是278万平米。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">也就是说漯河市住宅销量是深圳市的72%，如果把两个县城去了，仅仅算市区是深圳的64%。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我以前没关心过，偶然看到这个数据感到震惊，原因如下：</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳市的常住人口至少1500万，</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">漯河市全市不过270万，</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">市区人口只有80万（恐怕还有水分）。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳市人口是漯河市的六倍，</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">可房地产销售面积却不是六倍，而是仅仅比漯河市高30%，处在一个销售量级上。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以是深圳市盖了太少的房子，还是漯河市盖了太多的房子？</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我想恐怕两者都是。</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">所以我不看好三四线城市的房地产，但恐怕北上广永远是北上广。</span></p> <!----></div> 2月8日，公安部发布《2020年全国姓名报告》。报告透露：截止到2020年12月31日，2020年出生并已经到公安机关进行户籍登记的新生儿共1003.5万。相对于去年的1465万减少了不少。
或许还有新生儿还没来得及增加多少。
眉山这种经济相对落后，本身人口就少的地方，房地产市场不容乐观，心疼这几年高位接盘的90后甚至00后。
还是我买不起的
未来的机会早已不在精刚经混昵吐，会由实变虚 房价，我反正是看空。过2年看趋势更明显
2022年后进入60岁的会突然比前几年暴涨近千万？
1962年出生千万？ lai12345 发表于 2021-2-19 16:27
2022年后进入60岁的会突然比前几年暴涨近千万？
1962年出生千万？
对的，三年自然灾害时期人口出生率低，62年上涨了1000多万，后面就是60年代的婴儿潮
网络图片，仅供参考
人口是房价的重要因素
最后一波疯狂后是大批量的套屎，当成是化达到巅峰以后，用什么承载这么一大批人的就叶。
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